Today Indiana University will kick off against THE Ohio State Buckeyes in the dreaded Horseshoe. The eyes of the football nation will tune in for this anticipated showdown. IU is riding on its greatest season in program history. They remain undefeated through 10 games. They’ve beaten their opponents decisively with an impressive 32 point margin. They will march into Columbus with their highest ranking at 5th in the nation.

But their opponent will offer the biggest challenge yet. The Buckeyes are the 2nd best team in the nation. They are favored to win by a 10.5 point margin according to ESPN. They’ve gift wrapped 28 straight losses to the Hoosiers who haven’t scored a win over their superior foe since 1987. IU is a complete team. Their offense is ranked 15th overall. They boast one of the most formidable defenses in country at #3. Yet the Buckeyes eclipse them on both fronts. Their offense is ranked 12th, and their defense sits at #2. The NCAA gives the Buckeyes a 71% margin of victory. The Columbus team surpasses Indiana in every metric. Can the Bloomington underdog overcome their biggest test in program history or are they bound by the status quo and destined to fall short once more? If we dive into the annals of the past we just might discover the answer to this unwritten future.

Alexander vs. Darius III

Let’s rewind to the year 331 BC. It’s September 31st. Alexander the Great and his army of 40,000 Macedonians stare in trepidation across the plains of Iraq where the most important battle in history is about to commence. They watch with concern on the other side of the plain at the largest army ever assembled. 200,000 men from all corners of the Persian Empire have descended on this spot about 20 miles west of their capital Babylon. The army is led by Persian King Darius III and he’s ready to bury the Macedonians into the soil.

Night blankets the sky. Alexander and his army fear it will be the last night of their lives. They are a well trained force. They’ve beaten the Persians already. The youthful king has swept through Greece, Turkey, Egypt, Arabia, and Syria. Nearly half of the Persian Empire lives under his thumb. At the ripe age of 25, the young ruler has never known defeat. But circumstances have changed. Alexander has never faced an army of this magnitude. A colossal force that shakes the very ground when it marches. In past meetings, Alexander used his guile and tactical brilliance to outmaneuver King Darius. But he now understands his precocious foe. He will not underestimate him again. He’s prepared to handle Alexander’s unorthodox methods.

This is a battle Alexander cannot win. The Macedonians will lose and they will all perish for they’ve infiltrated so deep into foreign land that there is no hope of returning home. Macedonia is hundreds of miles away. The betting market would place the over/under at -150 for the Persians. They will enter the fray with a 99% margin of victory.

Alexander knows this. On the eve of battle the king is seen tracing back-and-forth, wracking his brain for a solution. His generals argue and dither but Alexander pays them no attention. The men will form up in a matter of hours but the king still has no plan. And then in an instance everything changes. Alexander stops pacing. He smiles. His generals see this and it only makes them more rife with fear. Has their king gone insane? As it turns out, he hasn’t. Alexander has solved the riddle. He has a plan and he shares it with them. What they hear astonishes them but they trust their king. The mood has unmistakably shifted. Solace overtakes the men and Alexander sleeps the sleep of a thousand nights.

The next morning the armies form up. The much larger Persian force crashes into the body of Alexander’s troops. His men are holding for now but the Persians will inevitably overwhelm and consume them. Meantime Alexander watches on horseback at the helm of his army’s cavalry. He gives the signal and the 7,000 Macedonian horse riders leap into action. They gallop far, far away from the field. Darius is at first confused for it looks as if Alexander and his men are fleeing the battle. He goes suspicious and orders his own cavalry, numbering 47,000 to give chase. The Persian cavalry aggressively pursues the Macedonians until they are miles from the battle. Then in a shocking twist, Alexander’s force completes a sudden U-turn. They fly right past the Persians and ride at breathtaking speed right into the belly of the now unprotected Persian flank. The much larger Persian cavalry tries to turn around but they are too cumbersome. They won’t catch Alexander in time. The young king and his men plunge into the Persian masses, stampeding foot soldiers in all directions. Alexander heads straight for Darius. The King sees Alexander coming. He looks like a mad man. Darius panics and flees from the field. Word spreads that their king has abandoned them and the army then scatters in full retreat.

Alexander has won. He defied the odds and wrestled victory from the impossible. This day marked the end of Darius’s empire. He is assassinated weeks later. Alexander is crowned the new empire and changes world history forever. So how did he win when winning wasn’t in the cards?

The X Factor

Sometimes being backed against a corner in a dire situation can inadvertently play to the strengths of the underdog. The weaker foe will be forced through desperation to think outside the box. The dearth of options will compel the underdog to be unorthodox. To alter the rules and defy custom because it has no choice. It will discover a hidden strength and flip the script by catching the opponent by surprise.

This is called the X factor. It’s the unknown quantity that cannot be accounted. Alexander’s X factor at Gaugamela involved 3 factors.

1. His youth which enabled him to be bold and reckless.

2. Desperation. He would either win or die. Those stakes forced him to re-imagine the rules and customs of warfare.

3. His general brilliance which served as his greatest natural talent.

Indiana’s X Factor

So what is IU’s X Factor? Do we have a secret weapon that can shift the odds in our favor? I believe that we do. Our key to victory is not our quarterback Kurtis Rourke but our head coach Curt Cignetti. He has proven his brilliance time and again through his in-game adjustments. Whenever we have been down he imposes small, subtle changes that have turned the fortune in our favor. He is among the great tacticians in college football. And the overwhelming might of the opponent might play into his hands. If we win I predict it will be because of key plays made in real time from the mind coach Cignetti. We will have to wait and see.